According to the National Meteorological Service (SMN) of the National Water Commission (Conagua), Mexico could face the formation of up to 37 named cyclones in the 2025 hurricane season, with the possibility that five of them could impact the country. It is estimated that between 16 and 20 systems will occur in the Pacific Ocean, and between 13 and 17 in the Atlantic, representing a scenario close to or slightly above the expected average.
In a conference, the head of the SMN, Fabián Vázquez Romaña, detailed that between 8 and 9 tropical storms are forecast in the Pacific, along with between 4 and 5 category 1 and 2 hurricanes, and between 4 and 6 major hurricanes categorized between 3, 4, and 5. For the Atlantic, between 7 and 9 tropical storms are expected, between 3 and 4 category 1 and 2 hurricanes, and between 3 and 4 major hurricanes, totaling between 15 and 17 tropical cyclones.
The official start of the season is scheduled for May 15 in the Pacific and June 1 in the Atlantic, extending until November 30 in both basins. Vázquez Romaña indicated that the forecasted number of cyclones does not guarantee the amount that could affect Mexico, as each system develops according to specific atmospheric and oceanic conditions.
The climate phenomenon El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the main factors affecting cyclonic activity, and in 2025 it has transitioned from cold conditions (La Niña) to a neutral phase. According to SMN authorities, this transition can alter the quantity, intensity, and behavior of the phenomena.
In the 2024 tropical cyclone season, 30 named systems were recorded, including tropical storms and hurricanes, with impacts in Mexico both in the Pacific and the Atlantic. While 12 cyclones formed in the eastern Pacific, 18 named systems were recorded in the Atlantic.
In both oceans, the 2025 hurricane season is expected to be close to or slightly above the average, so it is essential to closely follow the official information provided by the authorities to be prepared for any eventuality.
