There is a possibility that Mexico and Canada may ease some of their demands for the three countries to reach an agreement regarding the USMCA, according to some opinions. The Mexican government's effort to avoid tariffs is strengthened by the success of the treaty. It is predicted that the USMCA will generate inflation and depreciation of the exchange rate, which could lead the central bank to halt interest rate cuts.
Regarding Trump's new tariff threat, the Mexican peso has been the most affected currency. Experts indicate that U.S. protectionist policies could influence investment flows from companies wanting to access the Mexican market from the United States and other parts of the world, especially Asia.
Despite short-term concerns, it is considered relevant for Trump to maintain the trade agreement with Mexico and Canada in the long run. Markets are paying attention to February 1, the date when the possibility of tariffs on Mexico was announced. These measures are expected to affect economic growth and investments in the country.
Analysts predict stagnation in growth for this year due to tariff threats. Trump seeks to negotiate more favorable conditions for the United States, which poses a challenge for foreign investments in Mexico. Moody's Analytics has not revised its GDP growth estimate for Mexico this year, maintaining it at 0.6%.
In the event of tariff imposition, various scenarios are being considered, including a possible 10% tariff from Trump, to which Mexico could respond similarly. This could result in capital flight and hinder the development of nearshoring. President Claudia Sheinbaum has urged to remain calm in this situation.
Meanwhile, from Davos, Semarnat Secretary Alicia Bárcena highlighted the deep economic integration existing between Mexico and the United States in various sectors, which could be an element to consider amidst these trade threats.
