The Mexican peso appreciated by 22.86% during 2024, which is expected to benefit the Bank of Mexico (Banxico). According to estimates from Banamex, the central bank could grant surpluses to the public treasury, which will help cover the deficit for the current year. It is estimated that Banxico will deliver around 110 billion pesos to the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) before April, equivalent to 0.3% of GDP.
According to Banamex, this contribution will allow for a reduction of the public deficit to 4.2%, surpassing the previous projection of 4.5%. For credit rating agencies, this level close to 4% is considered positive and helps to avoid a deterioration in the country's credit rating. The current outlook is marked by uncertainty arising from recent reforms, low expected growth, and possible repercussions from Donald Trump's policies.
Regarding negotiations to determine the amount of surpluses to be delivered, it is expected that the team led by Ramírez de la O will have room to obtain a significant amount. However, the final decision will be in the hands of Banxico's board of directors, chaired by Victoria Rodríguez. Despite Banamex's estimates, Rogelio Ramírez de la O suggests a slightly lower percentage of 3.9%.
For the year 2024, the public deficit is forecasted to reach 6%, the highest level in the last 30 years, marking a shift from the fiscal discipline maintained during most of Andrés Manuel López Obrador's administration. An additional depreciation is expected in 2025, which would open the possibility of generating additional reserves. It is important to remember that the delivery of surpluses by Banxico is established by law and follows a regulated process.
The adjustment made by Ramírez de la O is justified by the need to finalize priority government projects. Although there is skepticism in the market about the Ministry of Finance achieving its deficit target, the effort to reduce the deficit is acknowledged. If an operational surplus is generated, Banxico must cover the losses and allocate the remaining surplus to the treasury, according to current regulations. Citigroup, which recently separated from Banamex, also calculated surpluses, projecting that they could represent 1% of GDP, considering the current financial situation.
