The rating agency Standard and Poor's (S&P) predicts that Femsa will continue to face a slowdown in consumption in Mexico over the next 12 months, but anticipates that the company will maintain steady growth in its revenue and cash flow. S&P pointed out that, while a less notable slowdown is expected in the United States, a recovery is anticipated in other regions such as Europe and various Latin American countries.
According to the rating agency, despite increasing macroeconomic and political risks, Femsa's exposure to the United States is moderate. However, the expansion of its retail operations in this country could face challenges that may slow down capital utilization. S&P mentioned that the stable outlook for Femsa reflects the expectation of steady growth in revenue and EBITDA, as well as strong operating cash flow and a disciplined financial policy regarding the use of debt and cash.
Regarding Femsa's ability to meet its financial obligations, S&P considers it extremely high compared to other national issuers. The agency projects that, despite moderate estimates in revenue and EBITDA, Femsa's adjusted debt-to-EBITDA ratio will remain below one time over the next two years, excluding Kof.
S&P estimates that Femsa's sales will reach 496,741 million pesos in 2024, representing a 6.58% increase compared to the previous year. For 2025, an annual increase of 11.48% in sales is projected, reaching 553,781 million pesos, and it is expected that in 2026, revenues will record a 14% jump, reaching 631,289 million pesos.
Regarding operating cash flow, it is estimated to reach 64,960 million pesos in 2024, with an annual increase of 1.25%. For this year, 71,648 million pesos are projected, representing a 10.3% increase compared to the previous year.
