A study conducted by the Peterson Institute for International Economics has estimated that Mexico would face a cumulative reduction of 2 percentage points in its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and an immediate increase of 2.3 percentage points in annual inflation. In light of this situation, it is suggested that Mexico implement a strategy that addresses internal structural weaknesses and promotes positive interaction with its main trading partner to boost economic growth.
According to available information, the average annual growth of the Mexican GDP has been 0.9%, a figure that lags 1.8 percentage points behind the growth rate of the United States. This lack of economic dynamism is primarily attributed to adverse government decisions that can be summarized in three main points.
First, arbitrary changes were introduced to private investment rules, such as rolling back the energy reform in favor of state-owned companies, reviewing contracts with concessionaires, and prohibiting ongoing investments. Second, fiscal policy was procyclical, relaxing in 2024 for electoral reasons while remaining tight in 2020 despite the pandemic emergency. Finally, there was evidence of inefficient public spending by canceling ongoing projects, such as the New International Airport of Mexico City, and prioritizing costly projects like the Maya Train and the Dos Bocas refinery, which have low returns.
Additionally, in 2024, reforms were approved that negatively impacted the Judiciary and autonomous bodies dedicated to transparency, economic competition, and public policy evaluation. These circumstances negatively affect the current economy, as the current administration has followed the same principles.
In 2025, Mexico faces economic challenges arising from both internal and external policies. Internally, economic performance has been disappointing, and a slowdown in remittances is expected. Externally, measures such as a permanent 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada could reduce economic growth and increase inflation in all three countries, with Mexico being the most affected due to its trade relationship with the United States.
The possibility of mass deportations of undocumented migrants and the imposition of tariffs are raised, measures that would have a negative impact on both the U.S. and Mexican economies. Despite actions like the "Mexico Plan", its effectiveness is unknown due to existing threats. It is also emphasized that it is essential to address obstacles to progress, avoid projects of questionable justification, and promote policies that favor sustained economic dynamism.
