There was greater certainty following the statement from Howard Lutnick, the next U.S. Secretary of Commerce, regarding potential tariffs. Although the White House spokesperson mentioned that Donald Trump is still considering this measure, Lutnick indicated that Mexico and Canada could avoid them if they act quickly. He will lead the new administration's trade policy, based on an analysis commissioned by Trump, to be presented in April.
Lutnick proposed not to apply a generalized tariff, but to differentiate it by country. This could signal what to expect in April. Although eliminating Trump's unpredictability is complicated, the foreign exchange market reflected lower immediate risk. However, uncertainty is expected with the review of the USMCA and the potential tariff harmonization with the structure defined by the United States.
Mexico has an advantage in tariff asymmetry thanks to the USMCA, but criticisms include the increase in imports from China. The main demand expected will be for a higher percentage of value added in the U.S. The Mexico Plan aims to reduce dependence on Chinese inputs in supply chains. China is perceived to be using Mexico to evade tariffs in the U.S. market.
In summary, Howard Lutnick provided clarity on the tariffs proposed by Trump, indicating that they are a pressure mechanism. Beyond this tariff, a broader trade policy is expected with possible new rates to be defined.
