Grupo Financiero Banorte anticipates a volatile environment in the short term due to challenges related to tariffs, integration, and security. The Mexican peso closed last year at 20.82 pesos per dollar, its weakest level since 2008. It is forecasted to reach a level close to 21.4 pesos by 2025, due to macroeconomic uncertainties regarding exchange rates.
Regarding GDP growth, an increase of only one percent is expected for this year, lower than the 1.6 percent recorded the previous year. José Marcos Ramírez Miguel, the group's general director, indicated that a slight decrease in GDP growth is anticipated due to fiscal consolidation and other adverse factors at the international level.
On the other hand, the dynamics of private construction is expected to remain resilient this year, supported by strong consumption fundamentals and the implementation of the Mexico Plan, a government strategy to boost regional development.
In relation to inflation, it was at 4.21 percent last year, improving compared to the 4.7 percent of 2023. It is expected to continue decreasing during 2025 and close at four percent. The Bank of Mexico reduced its reference rate to 10 percent by the end of 2024, anticipating an additional decrease for this year.
Grupo Financiero Banorte will continue closely monitoring possible changes in public policies and announcements from the President that may impact the Mexican economy. They maintain a constructive outlook for the upcoming trade negotiations, focusing on the integration of products between Mexico and the United States in the long term, especially in the automotive and electronics industries.
