According to the recently published data from Inegi, in 2024, the economy of Mexico grew by 0.5%, a figure that coincides with the preliminary estimate made a month earlier, although it was lower than the 0.6% initially reported. The second largest economy in Latin America is experiencing a slowdown due to the loss of dynamism in manufacturing exports, even in key sectors such as automotive.
The report from the Bank of Mexico indicates that this decrease in economic activity is also due to the drought that affected the agricultural sector, causing its worst performance in 25 years. Compared to the previous quarter, the agricultural sector contracted by 8.5%, the industrial sector by 1.5%, and the services sector barely grew by 0.2%.
For the year 2025, it is expected that the Mexican economy will continue to slow down for the fourth consecutive year, due to restrictive fiscal conditions and political uncertainty both in Mexico and in the United States. Of particular interest is the possible imposition of a 25% tariff on Mexican exports by U.S. President Donald Trump.
Economic analysts predict that the Mexican peso could fluctuate in the coming weeks, falling within a range of 20.25 to 20.45 pesos per dollar. It is expected that the Bank of Mexico will reduce interest rates again in March in an attempt to stimulate the economy, provided that the tariffs announced by the United States are not applied. Despite the uncertainty, it is noted that annual inflation slowed to 3.59% in January.
In summary, the economy of Mexico faces several challenges, from the slowdown of exports to drought in the agricultural sector, along with political uncertainty and potential tariff threats. Experts predict a scenario of economic weakness that could persist in 2025 unless measures are implemented to counteract these obstacles and stimulate growth.
