The sword of Damocles hangs over the head of Mexican Foreign Trade amid uncertainty about actions that may or may not occur, not only in the next four days but in the next four years. Additionally, it is necessary to know: What international impacts will there be? Saying that alternatives markets will be sought is easy, but the reality is very different, especially if there is no clear route from the Federal Executive.
In light of the possibility that the neighboring country's government may impose tariffs, entrepreneurs in Mexico need to know what measures will be implemented to mitigate the impact, as it is not possible to trust that this threat will not materialize or predict when it will happen, or that, in the best-case scenario, a grace period or temporary suspension will be granted again. This is even more relevant if we remember the precedent from 2018, when during Trump's first term, he imposed tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum, and the Mexican government responded with taxes ranging from 10% to 25% on materials made from steel, pork, various types of cheeses, apples, potatoes, blueberries, and American bourbon; that is, tariffs were imposed on sectors that Republican groups considered strategic to exert pressure in their country without unduly affecting the Mexican industry.
It is vital to keep in mind that while the Mexico Plan sets ambitious goals we want to achieve, we cannot turn a blind eye and ignore the impact that a measure like the one being announced can have on foreign trade, especially when it comes from a president who seeks to reposition his country at almost any cost. Reminding the president of that country that such a measure will impact its citizens is not enough and should not be the negotiation or attack formula, since that fact is already known; moreover, the current government has data that its advisors defend, arguing that this will not happen, or in their case, that the impact will be less, without it seeming that such an argument is sufficient to modify their plans, even if it is solely a pressure measure to achieve other objectives.
Mexico cannot delay and must take measures in foreign trade not only for the short term but also for the immediate, medium, and long-term future, something that is not adequately reflected in the policies and actions that the federal government is currently undertaking. This should serve as a warning to our country’s government, which must implement very clear actions and programs that allow situations like those currently being experienced to affect the national economy as little as possible, which largely depends on revenues generated by the export of goods.
With only a few days left before the suspension deadline granted by the Government of the United States of America to the Government of Mexico for the implementation of tariff collection, several questions arise without clear answers, which it is important to put on the table. Regardless of the negotiations being held, can the president of the United States, at some other time, again pressure our country by imposing tariffs? If the answer is yes, then another question arises: What measures is the Mexican government taking to ensure these actions do not affect – or do so to a lesser extent – the national economy, without having to accept the demands of that government? Are we interested in seeking an alternative trading partner to the United States? And, if this is feasible, how long will its implementation take?
For those of us who are dedicated to the subject, changes have been implemented that, instead of facilitating trade, have hardened and obstructed the operations of companies engaged in importing or manufacturing goods for export, increasing their production costs. This, in turn, has an inconsistent relationship with the exponential income of trading companies with Asian-origin investments; that is, companies that do not produce goods for either internal consumption or export, and that are displacing various sectors of trade, whose price analysis makes it unfeasible for their products to enter the country legally, without a real response from the federal government against such companies.
It is necessary to understand what route the Federal Government is pursuing for domestic producers, so they can take the best precautions, as they currently find themselves in a crossfire between the possible measures that the country that is their main buyer seeks to implement and the measures of their own government, which imposes more controls every day without adjusting the mechanisms aimed at promoting foreign trade; without criticizing that the authority carries out auditing processes, as it is their duty and right, but remembering that it is not only necessary not to hinder foreign trade, but also to support legally established businessmen and industrialists, who are not the enemy to be defeated, but the best allies for Mexico to advance.
