Fitch Ratings predicts that despite the challenges of the operating environment, such as the expected slowdown in GDP growth, the seven largest Mexican banks will have good financial performance in 2025. The rating agency highlights the strong risk-adjusted earnings and solid capitalization of the banks as key factors supporting their financial profiles.
In the fourth quarter of 2024, Fitch affirmed the ratings of these banks and noted a neutral outlook for the Mexican banking sector in 2025. This outlook reflects Fitch's expectation that, despite macroeconomic and political challenges, Mexico's stable economic performance and low financial inclusion will allow banks to maintain stable business volumes.
Regarding the major Mexican banks, Fitch highlighted their substantial influence by representing between 75 and 80 percent of the banking sector's assets. The agency does not foresee significant changes, even with the spin-off of the consumer business of Banco Nacional de México. Loan growth is expected to moderate slightly in 2025, and a slight deterioration in asset quality is also anticipated due to slower economic growth and the maturity of loans, especially in the consumer segment.
As for profitability, it is expected to stabilize after strong results in previous years, due to rising credit costs and a reduction in net interest margins. Nevertheless, the overall metrics are expected to remain solid, with capitalization indicators at good levels providing a solid buffer to absorb the anticipated growth in loans and associated risks.
On the other hand, it is highlighted that the financing outlook for the major Mexican banks will continue to be attractive, supported by stable and low-cost funding from deposits. Although a slowdown in deposit growth is expected, banks are anticipated to prioritize sight deposits to maintain healthy net interest margins and strengthen their liquidity profiles.
