According to the latest forecasts, the general inflation indicator in Mexico is expected to close the year 2025 at a value of 3.71%, slightly lower than the previous forecast of 3.83%. Regarding the core component, it is estimated to increase marginally from 3.74% to 3.75%.
For the year 2026, expectations for general inflation remain at 3.70%, while for the core component they have changed from 3.60% to 3.63%. Luis Adrian Muñiz, economic analyst at Vector Casa de Bolsa, indicated that following the downward adjustment of the GDP forecast made by the Bank of Mexico last month (0.6%), a downward revision by analysts is expected.
Regarding the exchange rate, it is estimated that by the end of 2025 it will be 20.85 pesos per dollar, slightly lower than the previous estimate of 20.90 pesos per dollar. For the following year, forecasts have been adjusted from 21.30 to 21.36 pesos per dollar. Analysts also predict that the reference rate will end this year at 8.25%, compared to the previous 8.50%.
Regarding Mexico's economic growth, the consensus of analysts has reduced its expectation for this year to 0.81%, after estimating it at 1.0%, according to the Survey on the Expectations of Private Sector Economic Specialists conducted by the Bank of Mexico. This has been the third consecutive downward revision.
