Businesspeople and economic analysts express their concern about the possible loss of judicial independence, which could affect the reliability of the system and leave it subject to external influences. In this context, it is noted that the legal insecurity arising from this electoral process could result in a decrease in investment, both national and foreign, during the first year of Claudia Sheinbaum's mandate.
The uncertainty generated by this process adds to other economic risk factors, such as tariffs, which has led to the pause of several investment projects, despite announcements made by various companies. Will this reform provide greater justice and impartiality to the Mexican judicial system, as its supporters argue, or will it deepen distrust and drive away investors? While waiting for an answer, the national economy remains watchful, trying to foresee the outcome of this political gamble.
Anticipating the possible politicization of the Judiciary, many companies plan to use the recently approved General Law on Alternative Mechanisms for Dispute Resolution, which includes methods such as mediation and private arbitration to resolve disputes. This drives law firms and specialized advisors to offer services focused on these mechanisms.
The electoral process for the election of ministers, magistrates, and judges of the Judiciary is approaching, with a peculiarity in its development. The low dissemination of these elections, the complexity of the new selection mechanism, and the presence of unknown names on the ballots could decrease citizen participation. The possibility of party intervention in this process has raised concern in the business sector and among investors, who see it as a threat to judicial independence.
Amid this uncertainty, companies are adopting preventive measures. Although it is early to accurately foresee the economic impact of the judicial reform, signs of economic slowdown are already perceived, such as the decrease in gross fixed investment in the last quarter of last year, which was the most pronounced since the first quarter of 2021.
In conclusion, Mexico is entering unknown territory, where the uncertainty about the direction of the judicial system is compounded by other economic challenges, generating concern in various sectors.
