The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has revised down its economic growth forecasts for Mexico and Canada due to the impact of tariffs imposed by the United States. According to the OECD, tariff measures could be particularly costly for Canada and Mexico given their higher trade openness and their high dependence on trade with the United States.
"These tariffs are likely to be particularly costly for Canada and Mexico due to their higher trade openness and their high proportion of trade with the United States," warns the OECD in its Interim Economic Outlook report.
In the case of Mexico, the OECD predicts an inflation impact that would stand at 4.4 percent annually by the end of 2025, representing an increase of 1.1 percentage points compared to forecasts made three months ago. The organization also warns of the risk of a recession in Mexico due to tariffs and other protectionist policies of the Trump administration.
The rating agency Fitch Ratings has also cut its growth forecasts for Mexico and Canada, pointing out that both countries could experience technical recessions due to their trade exposure to the United States.
In the midst of uncertainty, the temporary suspension of tariffs by Trump for products covered by the USMCA until early April could provide a respite for Mexico, allowing it to avoid recession in an optimistic scenario.
Despite this outlook, the risk that the United States imposes tariffs of 25% on the majority of Mexican and Canadian products still persists, which could have significant economic consequences for the region. Both the OECD and Fitch warn that Mexico would be the country most affected by these measures if implemented.
