The director of the Economic Research Center of the Autonomous University of Nuevo León (UANL), Édgar Luna, pointed out that the uncertainty generated by President Donald Trump's tariff threats is having a more lasting economic impact than the pandemic. In contrast to the COVID-19 lockdown, which was brief but intense, the current effect extends over time and is more difficult to assess.
Luna expressed his concern about the possible long-term consequences of Trump's measures. He indicated that uncertainty is already influencing companies' investment decisions and affecting key indicators, which could slow down employment.
Regarding the Mexican economy, Luna indicated that if the current conditions do not change, a significant slowdown in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and in job creation is expected in the coming years. GDP growth is anticipated to be 0.2% in 2025, and formal employment growth at 0.8%.
The arrival of China in Mexico with a view to accessing the U.S. market has been a relevant factor in this situation. The specialist warned that if origin rules are intensified or new barriers are imposed, the nearshoring phenomenon that has benefited regions like Nuevo León could be at risk.
Amidst this scenario, Luna emphasized that this uncertainty landscape could become a permanent policy during Trump's next term. He stated that companies are already slowing down their investments and that the economy as a whole will be affected if these measures are maintained in the long term.
