The National Institute of Statistics and Geography published the timely estimate of Mexico's Gross Domestic Product for the first quarter of the year, revealing moderate growth that prevented the national economy from falling into a 'technical recession.' In the period from January to March 2025, GDP grew by 0.2%, seasonally adjusted, after a contraction of 0.6% in the previous quarter. This result was slightly above analysts' expectations and marked a return to growth for Mexico.
In comparison with the first quarter of 2024, GDP showed an annual growth of 0.6%, accelerating from 0.5% in the previous quarter. The growth in the first quarter of 2025 is primarily attributed to the recovery of the primary or agricultural sector, which grew by 8.1% quarterly after a decline of 8.5% in the previous quarter. The high volatility in primary activities is due to changing climatic conditions.
Economist Alejandra Marcos from Intercam Financial Group considers that talking about a technical recession in this context is redundant, given that the country's economy grew by 0.2% in the quarter. She highlighted that growth was mainly driven by primary activities, while industrial activities contracted by 0.3% and tertiary activities experienced stagnation.
Despite the positive GDP figure in the first quarter, Marcos warns that the Mexican economy is experiencing a deep slowdown. Regarding projections, she notes that the economy could face a contraction if tariffs and the deterioration in the external sector persist. Organizations like the IMF and the World Bank expect economic activity in Mexico to contract or remain stagnant in 2025.
The exceptional growth of the primary sector will not be repeated due to high temperatures, water scarcity, and lower external demand. As the year progresses, the Mexican economy is expected to continue facing challenges that could result in a widespread contraction of economic activity.
