The pressures to achieve the deficit goals this year have complicated after the Bank of Mexico announced a surplus significantly below expectations. Specialists see deeper adjustments in key sectors as inevitable, in an environment of lower growth.
The Secretary of Finance, Edgar Amador, assured that the Ministry of Finance does not make forecasts based on these resources, although for the market an inflow of up to 170 billion pesos would be a relief for public finances. This would allow approaching the goal with a deficit of around 4.5% by the end of the year; however, the actual result was much lower by 18 billion, which surprised the president due to its magnitude.
Specialists from the private sector stated that this surplus is of little significance to benefit public accounts and warned that risks to public finances still exist. A study from the Center for Economic Studies of the Private Sector (CEESP) indicated that the promise of the government of Claudia Sheinbaum that Mexico will not incur new debt will not be fulfilled.
Support for Pemex is also crucial, as it faces significant debt commitments, despite aligning with the austerity of the public sector. On the other hand, important items such as education have been reduced by 34.7%, health by 13.8%, and welfare by 26.8%, sacrificing the well-being of families.
The government has debt commitments this year and has prioritized the health sector, medicine suppliers, and Pemex suppliers. Credit rating agencies are attentive to the government's fiscal strategy to reduce the deficit, while the figures reflect an increase in public debt of 7.5 trillion pesos.
The economy shows a clear slowdown, with GDP growth of only 0.2% in the first quarter. The market does not foresee a recovery this year, which exerts pressure on revenues and the need for further adjustments to public spending.
In the first quarter, total revenues increased by 11% annually, but it is expected that they will not continue this trend due to downward economic projections. On the other hand, spending showed a decrease of 5.9%.
