We are beginning to see price pressures in food services, such as restaurants and cafeterias, which are labor-intensive with thin margins and where labor costs are quickly passed on to consumers, stated in an interview with LPO. From a social standpoint, the criticism points to the need to narrow the gap between the general minimum wage, which is 8,364 pesos and applies to most of the country, and the minimum wage on the northern border, which reaches 12,596 pesos per month. In this scenario, the organization Acción Ciudadana Frente a la Pobreza proposes to return to the model of differentiated increases applied in 2019 and 2020. However, for the first time in years, analysts warn that this strategy may be reaching its limit, and that new increases without improvements in productivity could begin to work against their own objectives. The Deputy Director of Economic Studies at Banamex, Paulina Anciola, estimates that the next adjustment could be around 11%, and warns that the policy of increases during the AMLO administration "was positive for recovering income and reducing inequalities, but it is reaching its limit". Fox recognized AMLO for the minimum wage increase: "It was a great move". Her analysis is that without parallel measures to boost productivity, such as investment in infrastructure, technology, and human resources development, the hike will begin to shift to the corporate cost structure—especially in small firms and labor-intensive activities—which could lead to job cuts or price increases. However, its indirect impact is broader due to the "beacon effect" the figure generates on both average wages and the income of over 21 million people in the informal sector, who could use the new wage benchmark to justify increases in their earnings. Without productivity gains, the increases could be passed on to prices and put pressure on hiring, especially in the service sector. The next increase will be defined in December by the National Minimum Wage Commission (Conasami), a tripartite body made up of the government, business leaders, and workers. Its executive president, Rogelio Gómez Hermosillo, proposes that the general minimum wage, which applies to most of the country, should increase by 16%, while the border wage would rise by only 4%. Gómez Hermosillo considers the border wage to be overvalued: "The cost of living is not 50% higher on the border." Meanwhile, the general wage still needs a faster recovery to approach the official target of 2.5 basic baskets by 2030. The increase would have a limited direct impact: it would affect about 8.5 million formal workers, around 38% of those insured with IMSS, who currently earn below the minimum wage. Although she avoided giving an exact figure for 2026, the president left open the possibility of repeating a similar increase to 2025's 12%. With this statement, the continuity of one of the flagship policies of the López Obrador movement is beginning to take shape: the recovery of the minimum wage, which accumulated a real increase of 111% between 2018 and 2024. The government of Claudia Sheinbaum is preparing to implement the second minimum wage increase of her administration. This is leading to the closure of some plants and affecting employment. The result can help sustain purchasing power, but its success will depend on accompanying it with productivity, investment, education, health, and infrastructure policies that allow income to rise sustainably. "Companies move to where it is convenient for them".
