Mexico's economy is showing signs of cooling. According to Inegi data, the country's GDP contracted by 0.3% in the third quarter, leading analysts to revise their forecasts. Economists warn of a high probability of a technical recession if a decline is also recorded in the fourth quarter. The main drag on growth is the industrial sector, particularly manufacturing and construction, which showed an annual drop of 3.3%. Despite this, some experts, like those at Banorte, note the 'resilience' of the economy for 2025 as a whole. They expect a recovery of 0.6% in the final quarter. Meanwhile, Banamex has cut its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 0.4% to 0.2%, significantly below the 0.5%-1.5% range projected by the Ministry of Finance. For 2026, analysts forecast a growth of 1.8%, driven by greater external stability, growth in manufacturing and services, and increased public spending. However, this forecast is also below the government's official expectations. Experts note that the deterioration in the services sector, including trade, transportation, and finance, poses a risk to employment.
"If the trend continues in October, the scenario of a double quarterly drop would cease to be a warning and become a concrete possibility," the report insists.
