Mexico is under strong pressure from the US to establish tariffs, barriers, and quotas. This situation is highly volatile and depends solely on the mood and discretion of the US president. Although progress in migration and security has been recognized by the US government, it has not led to the elimination of tariffs. As the main trading partner of the US, Mexico demonstrates a strong negotiating position by avoiding confrontation. However, economic uncertainty is impacting the economy's growth, which remains resilient due to foreign investment inflows. Mexico's economic growth is expected to remain low in 2025. The US is using tariffs as a pressure mechanism in the review process. The ideal scenario for Mexico is to defend free trade, while the possible scenario is to minimize tariff pressures. Despite the threat of renegotiation or even withdrawal from the agreement, Mexico has a crucial legal tool—the USMCA—which provides an institutional framework for negotiations. A key factor for Mexico's economy is maintaining access to the US market, which accounts for 83% of its exports.
