The International Monetary Fund (IMF) improved its growth forecast for Mexico from 1.5% to 1.6% for 2026, the organization reported on Tuesday, April 14. "It is expected that the lower growth in 2025, due to fiscal consolidation, restrictive monetary policy, and obstacles derived from trade tensions, will give way to a slight recovery, with an economic expansion of 1.6% in 2026," explained the IMF in its World Economic Outlook report. The fund also improved the growth forecast for Mexico's GDP in 2027, which was raised from 2.1% to 2.2%. The organization expects inflation in our country to return to the Bank of Mexico's target range and to be at 3.9% in 2026 and to decelerate to 3.4% in 2027. The IMF warned that uncertainty for inflation in Mexico is high and new highs could be registered in the coming months due to "inflection points", the first and most important being the war in the Middle East. Currently, there is a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, but Donald Trump ordered the U.S. Navy to block Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz. The war between the US and Iran is "taking a toll" on the world economy. Just because of that conflict, the IMF lowered its estimate for global economic growth to 3.1% in 2026, 0.2 points below what was forecast in January of this year, and kept it at 3.2% for 2027. For the organization, obstacles derived from higher trade barriers and high uncertainty have been offset by factors such as investment in technology, favorable financial conditions, and the support of fiscal and monetary policies in certain countries. However, the conflict in the Middle East represents an important force against these favorable factors "due to its impact on commodity markets, inflation expectations, and financial conditions." The IMF's forecast is based on the assumption that the war in the Middle East will have a limited duration, intensity, and scope, so that the disruptions will dissipate by mid-2026. The IMF forecasts that the US economy will grow 2.3% in 2026, 0.1 points less than expected in January.
