Mexico registered 9.19 billion illicit cigarettes consumed in 2025, equivalent to 23.3% of the total market and an estimated fiscal loss of $1.314 billion, according to a study by KPMG consultancy commissioned by tobacco company Philip Morris. The report, released this Wednesday as part of a regional analysis of 11 markets in Latin America and Canada, shows that a total of 39.37 billion cigarettes were consumed in Mexico last year, 1.25 billion less than in 2024. Of that volume, nearly one in four corresponded to the illicit segment, whose share increased by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous year. The main finding for the Mexican market is that domestic legal consumption continued to lose ground, falling from 34.08 billion cigarettes in 2021 to 30.16 billion in 2025. However, illicit consumption advanced from 7.02 billion to 9.19 billion in the same period. According to the document, the decline in the legal market has been partially offset by an increase in imported cigarettes, known as non-domestic entries in the industry. In 2025, total cigarette consumption in Mexico decreased by 3%, due to a further drop in domestic legal consumption, while non-domestic entries remained stable. Within that flow, cigarettes classified as 'Domestic Others' stand out with 4.02 billion units, and the so-called 'Illicit Whites' with 2.79 billion, categories that group cigarettes legally manufactured in one country but destined for smuggling in other markets. The study adds that the Mexican illicit market is mainly composed of 'Illicit Whites', though counterfeit products gained weight in 2024 and 2025. In the latter year, counterfeits added 490 million units. Among the most relevant brands or components of the illicit segment in Mexico are Link, with 2.4 billion cigarettes; D&J, with 880 million; Económicos, with 570 million; and counterfeit products, with 490 million. Additionally, legal non-domestic entries represent a smaller portion of the total entering the country, and within them, those from the United States are the main component. In contrast, the bulk of the illicit trade entering Mexico is made up of 'Domestic Others', 'Illicit Whites' without a specific country label, and flows from Nicaragua. Mexico's exports to other markets included in the study were minimal, with 10 billion cigarettes to Costa Rica and the same amount to Colombia. In the regional context, Mexico was below the average for Latin America and Canada, where illicit consumption represented 31.9% of the total market in 2025.
