The Consumer Confidence Indicator (CCI) of Mexico showed an increase in October, reaching 49.4 seasonally adjusted points, which represented an increase of 2 units compared to September. This figure marked the largest monthly increase since November 2021 and the highest level recorded in the CCI since data became available in 2001, even exceeding the previous historical maximum reached in February 2019.
The CCI is based on responses about the current and expected economic situation at both individual and national levels, as well as the purchasing possibilities for durable goods. In October, the component that stood out the most was the expected economic situation of the country in one year compared to the current situation, with an increase of 4.2 points, reaching 55.4 points, the highest since March 2019.
Additionally, the expectation regarding the future economic situation of households also increased, reaching a new historical maximum of 60.8 points. These data show optimism about the upcoming economic situation in Mexico. At the same time, the indicator related to the employment situation in the country over the next 12 months was one of the most increased among other consumer confidence aspects.
This increase in consumer confidence coincides with the beginning of the government of President Claudia Sheinbaum and marked a milestone by surpassing by 5.1 points the confidence level recorded at the start of Andrés Manuel López Obrador's term in December 2018.
Despite these encouraging indicators, the economic growth outlook for Mexico in 2025 shows a downward bias. Various financial entities have adjusted their estimates, such as the Mexican Institute of Finance Executives, which reduced its growth forecast from 1.3% to 1.0% between September and October.
Financial analysts consulted by Citibanamex also maintain a growth projection of 1% for 2025, reflecting uncertainty at both the local and international levels. Factors such as electoral outcomes, legislative reforms, and changes in policy may impact the economic outlook for Mexico in the future, raising concerns about the stability and development of the country. In summary, despite the high level of consumer confidence, the economic growth outlook for 2025 presents a challenging scenario with downside risks.
