According to Jesús Cervantes, a migration expert, although there will be fewer deportations than announced, they will be more evident compared to the current situation. This will create an atmosphere of insecurity that will affect the remittances that Mexican families receive. Although the number of Mexicans deported has decreased, there are measures that combine tightening the border to reduce immigration and increasing deportations.
According to estimates from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, in 2023 there are almost 23 million Latin American immigrants in the country, of which more than 10 million are Mexican. This proportion has changed significantly since 2015, when Mexicans represented 56% of the migrant population. Jesús Cervantes, who heads Economic Statistics and the Remittances Forum of Latin America and the Caribbean at CEMLA, highlights the impact of deportations on remittances.
During AMLO's presidency, there has been a noteworthy increase in money remittances to Mexico, which constitute an important source of dollar income for the national economy. However, the uncertainty generated by the migration policies of the next U.S. government could significantly affect these remittances, which represent a considerable portion of the labor income of migrants.
If the current trend continues, it is expected that by 2024 around 66.5 billion dollars will be sent in remittances to 6.1 million Mexican households. A decrease in these remittances would have a direct impact on the exchange rate and could end the monthly records of remittances that have been registered in recent years. Although deporting millions of people would be costly and unfeasible, the deportations that will occur will undoubtedly impact the remittances sent to Mexico.
