According to the Economic Package delivered to Congress, a closure of the public deficit is expected to be at 8 percent by 2025, which represents a downward adjustment of 2 percentage points from previous estimates. A public deficit of 4.41 percent is forecasted for 2024, and 3.81 percent for 2025. The dollar is projected to drop to 19.70 pesos by the end of 2024 and finish 2025 at 18.50 pesos.
Regarding interest rates, it is expected that the 28-day Cetes will end the year at 10 percent, suggesting a possible quarter-point cut in the Banxico's reference rate before the year ends. These figures align with estimates for bank funding made by consulted experts.
In relation to inflation, a closure of 4.3 percent is anticipated for December of this year and a reduction to 3.5 percent in 2025. The forecast for Public Sector Financial Requirements in 2025 is at 3.9 percent of GDP instead of the previously proposed 3.0 percent. The proposed target was well received by investors, generating a slight appreciation of the peso against the dollar.
The lower public deficit, equivalent to 2 percent of GDP, comes from cuts in public spending and an increase in revenues. A 4.1 percent decline in programmatic spending of the public sector is expected alongside a 3.3 percent growth in budgetary revenues in real terms.
Economic growth projections are optimistic, with estimates placing the range between 1.5 and 2.5 percent for this year. However, the most notable figures are expected for 2025, where the Treasury estimates growth between 2 and 3 percent, while Citibanamex experts estimate it at 1.0 percent.
Regarding the peso's exchange rate against the dollar, an optimistic perspective suggests maintaining a relatively high positive real rate throughout the next year. Despite certain forecasts, the presented Economic Package seems to have ensured economic and financial stability, generating confidence among investors and avoiding downgrades in Mexico's debt rating.
