The message also included a clear nationalist component and internal social cohesion. The future had changed; a trade war was beginning between partners (Mexico announced its retaliation measures, its Plan B, yesterday Monday), the violation of the USMCA was almost a complete dilution, and we were already calculating the impact on Mexican and Canadian exports and imports.
A new era of protectionism was born, burying free trade, a pillar of neoliberalism, but not to give way to an alternative development model, rather to impose a neoconservative and isolationist economy. Some critical and opposing voices began to revel and lick their lips at the possibility that an economic downturn could weaken the Mexican government, but... the future changed again on Monday.
Trump lifted the financial sanctions imposed by Biden and released the supply of bombs that his predecessor had suspended. The last day of January brought uncertainty because the specter of a trade war roamed the world. On Saturday, with barely the first dozen days of Donald Trump’s government completed, we choked on tamales with the White House’s announcement of imposing 25 percent tariffs on their partners!
Important steps, but insufficient at the moment. In response to Trump's surprise move, Sheinbaum responded with a firm, calm, and sensible message in which she denied the major claim (government complicity with organized crime), prioritizing the logic of consumption and American public irresponsibility to combat the internal demand and distribution of fentanyl and to prevent the illegal trafficking of American weapons supplying firepower to Mexican organized crime.
Trump demands elections in Ukraine before negotiating a ceasefire because Putin does not recognize Zelensky's legitimacy to sign peace (his presidential term should have ended). The phone call between the presidents of the United States and Mexico marked the official start of a dialogue and at least three negotiation tables (migration, trade, and security).
Donald Trump’s strategy is yielding results. During the long weekend for the Constitution Day bridge, a series of announcements changed the future twice, for now. Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino concedes and offers not to renew the agreement with Xi Jinping called 'The Silk Road' and to serve as a deportation bridge for migrants.
The still Prime Minister of Canada, Justin Trudeau, and some of his governors announced reprisals ranging from tariff reciprocity to the withdrawal of alcoholic beverages from the U.S. from the local market (the good news is that whiskey is English and there are good wines in Mexico, South Cone, Spain, and Europe).
Claudia Sheinbaum had maintained, in parallel, two lines of action: a public one, articulating a binary discourse of coordination-without-subordination, cooperation-with-respect-to-sovereignty, with actions coordinated with Mexican businesspeople and international investors; and a private one, based on informal, direct, and discreet dialogue, but signaling that it was happening.
Canada and Mexico and the 10 percent to their rival China (which would raise to 60 percent). Free trade was dying, new protectionism was prevailing. The decision was signed. Claudia Sheinbaum's strategy is yielding results. Two personal governing styles (Cosio Villegas) opposed because, although both have an enormous capacity to connect and communicate with their sympathetic population and understand their needs and expectations, their temperament and values are diametrically different.
Benjamin Netanyahu is the first national leader to be received in Washington. And Greenland is still missing... Suggested reading: The Personal Governing Style of Daniel Cosío Villegas (Joaquín Mortiz). His vision is different, although they may share objectives; they coincide in a historical context, but the influence of the social, economic, and political environment separates them, and the way they, as rulers, approach problem-solving and policy formulation, including their willingness to listen to advice and collaborate with other political actors, distinguishes them notably.
Trump is in a hurry, he will govern less time than Claudia Sheinbaum, they will only coincide 66 percent of the Mexican time. Tensions will be a constant, but with many international fronts open. If our common future mutates, global geopolitics is drastically reconfiguring: multilateralism and European security weaken. He proposed to 'clean' Gaza of Palestinians and displace them to Egypt and Jordan.
