According to HR Ratings, the stricter foreign policy of the United States would imply the creation of additional budget programs to receive and integrate compatriots into the national economy. The pause in tariffs is considered positive given the economic slowdown, but there is a threat of their implementation in the short and medium term. Trump is more aware of the negative impacts of tariffs on Mexican exports, with Mexico being its main trading partner.
HR Ratings pointed out that the risks for private investment in Mexico, especially new Foreign Direct Investment, are at stake until the renegotiation of the USMCA completes, which would significantly affect the manufacturing sector. Moody's Local Mexico highlighted that uncertainty about new tariffs increases the risk of an economic slowdown in Mexico and a reduction in FDI, with variable impacts in different regions and sectors.
Mexico's commitment to strengthening the northern border to combat migration, organized crime, and fentanyl trafficking to the United States could pressure public finances, according to HR Ratings. The deployment of 10,000 elements of the National Guard at the border with the United States was not included in this year's budget and could affect public spending in the long term along with its new functions at the border.
