The world is experiencing a global reordering on an unprecedented scale and speed regarding migration. While migration is not a new phenomenon, its current magnitude is massive. It is estimated that partial stabilization could occur between 2025 and 2030, while complete global reordering could happen between 2035 and 2040. However, unlike in past eras, humanity does not have 50 years to find solutions to this challenge.
Historically, countries that have managed migration well have prospered. Examples such as Canada and Germany, which have turned migration into an economic engine, as well as Spain, which regularized 500,000 migrants in 2005 and achieved stability in less than a decade, demonstrate the importance of effectively addressing this phenomenon.
Today, migrations have evolved from traditional routes to more complex and lengthy movements, where the causes driving migration are diverse and range from climate crises to job opportunities. Furthermore, the settlements of migrants in new countries have become more permanent, transforming the demographics of these places.
Venezuela, Haiti, Nicaragua, Afghanistan, and Sudan have experienced economic collapses that have forced their inhabitants to seek opportunities outside their borders. Extreme inequality between countries, the climate crisis, and the aging population in receiving nations also play a crucial role in this phenomenon of global reordering. It is estimated that by 2050, more than 200 million people will migrate for climate change-related reasons.
Mexico, which used to be a country of emigration, has become a transit and destination country for migrants. In recent years, there has been a significant increase in the arrival of migrants in Mexico, which has posed significant challenges for the country. Cities like Tapachula and Tijuana, which used to be crossing areas, have seen transformations in their demographics due to the arrival of migrants.
In this context, it is predicted that the stabilization of this global reordering will take between 10 to 15 years. The magnitude and complexity of current migration movements suggest the need to find long-term solutions and address the underlying causes of migration on a global level.
