Montenegro explained that, despite their history of confrontation, there are operational understandings between the two groups. "There is a mutual understanding for drug trafficking, especially to the United States," he said, referring to the sharing of routes, logistics networks, and corruption mechanisms. These dynamics, he added, have allowed for the expansion of activities beyond drug trafficking, such as human trafficking and extortion, particularly in states where there was no significant presence of these groups before. He explained that in states like Chiapas, Zacatecas, and parts of central Mexico, criminal realignments have coincided with disputes over territorial and economic control. The 2027 elections and the realignment of criminal power Montenegro warned that the 2027 electoral process could accelerate these realignments due to the historical relationship between criminal groups and local political structures. Each intermediate election is usually accompanied by pacts, breakups, and adjustments on the criminal map. In this context, he anticipated possible mergers, the weakening of traditional factions, and the emergence of new alliances. The journalist also pointed out that the current dispute is not limited to territorial control but also to the search for better legal conditions in the face of processes in the United States. "The fight now is over who achieves the best judicial deal with U.S. authorities," he explained, mentioning cases involving members of the Zambada and Guzmán families. Finally, Montenegro considered that 2026 could be marked by high-impact arrests as part of a reinforced security strategy and bilateral cooperation. "It would not be strange to see a significant arrest in the first quarter," he concluded, referring to international pressure and the exchange of information between the two countries. The criminal map of drug trafficking in Mexico could undergo a significant realignment heading into the 2027 midterm elections, in a context marked by internal disputes, tactical alliances, and the diversification of illicit activities. This was explained by security journalist José Luis Montenegro in an interview for Aristegui en Vivo, analyzing the end of 2025 and the trends that are shaping up for the coming years. Montenegro noted that one of the main focuses of instability remains in Sinaloa, where a confrontation between factions of the Sinaloa Cartel, known as the "Chapiza" and the "Mayiza," continues. This was triggered by the capture and extradition of Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada. Since September 2024, we have seen a fratricidal war that created power vacuums in several regions. Prevalence and alliances between cartels According to the journalist's analysis, the Sinaloa Cartel and the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) maintain the largest territorial presence in the country, as well as an international reach spanning dozens of nations.
