Donald Trump begins his second term with greater legitimacy as he cannot seek re-election. He believes that to "make America great again," it is necessary to implement the announced measures. Mexico will be especially affected during this presidency due to economic interdependence, geographical proximity, and the importance of issues such as migration, security, and trade for the country.
The Mexican government under Claudia Sheinbaum will face significant challenges from Trump's administration, which is likely to exert pressure on migration and drug trafficking issues in the coming months. While there is a possibility that Trump will fulfill his promises, this would have severe consequences for Mexico, such as the mass deportation of irregular immigrants.
The "stay in Mexico" program and possible restrictive measures at the border could trigger a humanitarian crisis in Mexican border cities if they are not prepared for it. Cooperation between both countries is crucial on immigration issues, rather than continuing unilateral actions.
It is unlikely that the United States will send troops to Mexico to combat drug cartels, but if the situation worsens and there is a gang war, military intervention could be considered. Tijuana has already declared an emergency due to the potential mass deportation of migrants, so dialogue and collaboration between both governments are required to address this phenomenon.
In his inaugural speech, Trump announced measures such as declaring a national emergency at the southern border and labeling criminal organizations as terrorist groups. Although these are part of his rhetoric, the Mexican government has shown a willingness to cooperate without submitting. The Foreign Relations Secretariat coordinates actions among government agencies and Mexican consulates in the U.S.
A possible military attack would have economic repercussions for both nations due to the distrust it would generate among investors. However, it is unlikely that Trump will carry out all his threats to the letter, which would prevent a scenario of military intervention in Mexico. For the international community, such an action would be seen as an invasion of Mexican national sovereignty, something that the new government in the U.S. will likely avoid.
