The incoming government proposes a wild economy of scale with promises of lower costs, something that Mexico does not possess. Among the uncertainties generated by the Trump administration is the possible declaration of the Mexican drug cartels as terrorists. A national energy emergency is also anticipated to guarantee energy supply. This situation could complicate Trump's projects in the oil sector.
Trump's energy plan includes deregulation of the sector and changes to allow new developments on federal lands. These adjustments aim to reduce costs, which would have an impact on Mexico and its nearshoring initiatives. The specialist mentions that this scenario may alter the economic landscape and create a different game in the region.
On the other hand, in a context of uncertainty regarding energy reforms in Mexico, the enactment of new policies could be delayed. Experts express caution about the effectiveness of the Mexico Plan and the lack of clear direction from the country in response to Trump's measures.
Additionally, it is noted that Trump intends to increase oil production in the United States, which could impact crude prices and create greater competition. Specialists believe that Mexico's cost attractiveness would be diminished in this new scenario. The uncertainty regarding the implementation of these policies and their consequences in the USMCA raises concerns in the sector.
In summary, the measures of the Trump administration in the energy sector pose challenges for Mexico and its nearshoring strategy. The country's competitiveness could be affected by the proposed changes, requiring a strategic response from the authorities.
