Prolonged uncertainty will have a negative impact on investment and, therefore, on the economic growth of Mexico. Given the high dependence on trade with the United States, any restrictive measures by this country would significantly affect the Mexican economy. Although difficulties in growth are forecasted for the coming year, it is estimated that the country could maintain some competitive stability even in a scenario with 10 percent tariffs, thanks to a possible equivalent depreciation of the exchange rate.
Regarding U.S. trade policy towards Mexico, it is expected that the U.S. economy will continue its vigorous growth, which could favor Mexican exports despite potential tariffs. Although uncertainty will impact investment and a restrictive fiscal policy is anticipated, consumption could remain stable, partly due to wage increases in the country.
The uncertainty arises from both external and internal factors. Tariff threats from the United States and internal political uncertainty related to elections for the Supreme Court create a complex scenario. A depreciation of the Mexican peso has been observed, and if higher tariffs are imposed, the competitiveness of various sectors against other countries could be affected.
An agreement between Mexico and the United States that avoids tariffs and promotes cooperation in security and migration could boost economic growth above 1 percent. However, if a rupture in the trade relationship between the two countries were to occur, the impact would be considerably negative for investment. The persistence of uncertainty poses challenges, but there are opportunities in terms of economic growth if a stable trade relationship can be maintained.
