The Mexican economy has confirmed a slowdown with the most recent data from Inegi, showing a contraction of 0.6% quarterly in the last three months of 2024. This drop is mainly attributed to a sharp decline in the agricultural sector, which fell by 8.9% in the fourth quarter of the year, and in the industry, which presented a drop of 1.2%, both in quarterly comparison.
In contrast, services showed a growth of only 0.2% in the same period, demonstrating some resilience against the strength of employment and salary increases. In annual terms, GDP only grew by 0.6%, supported by the growth of the services sector by 2.2% compared to the previous year, while industry and the agricultural sector fell by 4.6% and 1.7%, respectively.
The Mexican economy is projected to grow by only 1.5% in the transition year between the governments of Andrés Manuel López Obrador and Claudia Sheinbaum, which represents half of what is estimated by the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit. Despite these data, President Claudia Sheinbaum highlighted in a press conference that the economy remains robust, emphasizing the low unemployment rates reported by Inegi, with a rate of 2.4% that she mentioned as the lowest globally.
Although some specialists show less optimism, anticipating a greater slowdown due to the contraction of public spending and the caution of private investors due to Donald Trump's arrival at the presidency of the United States and the uncertainty caused by changes in the country's reforms. It is also expected that the Bank of Mexico will maintain a restrictive interest rate despite the estimated cuts throughout the year.
