A step was taken in the learning of negotiation with Trump. If Claudia Sheinbaum had conditioned the call with President Trump on an apology for accusing the government of having links with drug trafficking organizations, we would probably already have tariffs at this moment. The National Guard should already be mobilized. The Mexican proposal accepted by Trump was to mobilize ten thousand National Guard troops to the northern border to prevent the passage of fentanyl and reduce the arrival of undocumented migrants. This will not be the last insult that the Mexican government receives from President Trump or some of his collaborators. The uncertainty that comes with Trump seems inevitable. Even if the application of the 25 percent tariff is suspended again within a month, we are not sure that we will be saved from the tariffs when the global trade study is presented in the coming months. Furthermore, we have already seen that Trump intends to begin this same year —de facto— at least, the review of the USMCA, the results of which we still do not have clear.
Before it was announced on Sunday that there would be a call between Trump and Sheinbaum, the exchange rate of the peso against the dollar had reached 21.28 pesos and it seemed that it could continue its upward trend in the following hours. The most likely scenario is that the exchange rate will remain within a range close to current levels as long as there is no clearer information regarding the future. What we gained with the negotiation was time, but it is most likely that in the review of commercial relations with abroad, the imposition of tariffs will be sought, although lower than 25 percent. This could have implications on the flow of trade, as more detailed inspections of the cargo arriving in the United States will be required, and surely the transit of people at the border will become more complicated.
President Sheinbaum did well to ignore the rhetoric to focus on substance, and with this, she temporarily managed to avoid tariffs. The Trump administration will demand more. Trump will surely ask for daily updates on information in those two areas to evaluate the results. There will be teams from both governments working on security and trade. In terms of security, it will not be enough to send the ten thousand troops to the border. We must prepare for tariffs, and if they don’t come, all the better. Trump not only sees tariffs as an instrument to pressure when he seeks to achieve non-economic objectives, but he also views them as a mechanism to correct imbalances in foreign trade. The complications will be even greater for migrants from other countries trying to reach the northern border. The current situation is opportune to review trade relations with China. Mexico could have a highly valued argument with the Trump administration if it harmonizes its tariffs with those of the United States in the case of China.
Thank you very much to everyone who has made this possible, but especially to the readers. I hope it continues to be useful for reflection and decision-making. Pressure notably decreased when the agreement was announced to pause tariffs for a month, and the dollar dropped from 21.10 to 20.50 in a matter of moments. We should continue along the same line. It could increase the cost of some imported products, but that cost could be justified if we eliminate the perception that China intends to use Mexico as a backdoor to the United States. Based on all of the above, we should go beyond and advance in creating conditions of certainty for private investment, as if the environment created by Trump is combined with an internal atmosphere of doubts regarding the Judiciary and the application of law, as well as a domestic situation that impedes private investment, we will face not just one year, but at least four very complicated years.
This column has completed 37 years of publication, practically uninterrupted. In trade matters, we will —de facto— begin negotiations for the revision of the Mexico-United States-Canada Agreement (USMCA). In other words, we will continue to face a situation of uncertainty that will inevitably affect private investments. It will be crucial to achieve quick and verifiable results.
