Sergio Kurczyn, director of the economic studies department at Banamex, considered that the threat of tariffs from Donald Trump towards Mexico is "more irrational, more predictable" and is only used as a negotiation strategy. According to Kurczyn, in his base scenario, they rule out that Trump will impose tariffs on Mexico throughout his presidency, as this would not be convenient for the U.S. economy.
The lack of market credibility in Trump's tariff plan has been evident, and the recent pause announced by the U.S. president did not surprise Banamex analysts. Although Trump's decision to postpone the tariffs has generated uncertainty about his upcoming actions, which negatively affects Mexico.
Trump's announcement about the imposition of tariffs caused a sharp drop in the Mexican peso, which reached a quote of 21.10 pesos per dollar on Saturday but stabilized around 20.50 units after the pause in his plan. Despite this situation, uncertainty persists and continues to affect the country.
Economist RamÃrez de la O pointed out that Trump's decision to postpone the tariffs could have negative long-term consequences for Mexico by complicating the attraction of new investments. He also noted that internal policies and legal uncertainty in the country also adversely influence the investment climate.
Regarding Mexico's plan to deal with Trump's protectionist policies, it is increasingly seen as insufficient and poses a significant challenge for the Mexican economy in the short term. Despite the pause in tariffs, Banamex analysts warn of the possibility that this measure could materialize in the future.
On the other hand, the tariff pause may also benefit President Claudia Sheinbaum, strengthening her position and generating confidence in her government. Experts suggest that Sheinbaum could take advantage of this moment to make modifications to previously approved constitutional reforms in order to counteract possible future economic impacts.
In summary, despite the pause in the imposition of tariffs, uncertainty persists and the economic outlook for Mexico remains challenging. Banamex analysts believe that Trump's actions are irrational and not beneficial either geopolitically or economically, raising concerns about the future moves of the U.S. president.
