Three financial entities attracted a quarter of the total remittances sent to Mexico in 2024. In that same year, seventeen states in the country reported a decrease in remittances compared to 2023. Some of the states that stood out for showing a reduction were Sinaloa (-17.7%), Baja California Sur (-15.9%), Coahuila (-9.6%), Tabasco (-9.1%), and Nuevo León (-7.9%). On the other hand, fifteen states reported significant increases, including Mexico City (+21.1%), Puebla (+7.1%), Oaxaca (+6.8%), State of Mexico (+5.7%), and Colima (+5.1%).
The United States remained the main country of origin for remittances to Mexico, with a total of 62,529 million dollars in 2024, which accounted for 96.6% of the total received. Notably, California and Texas concentrated 47% of these transfers, with California sending 20,412 million dollars and Texas 9,002 million. Other important states for remittance sending were Colorado, Georgia, Illinois, Florida, New York, and North Carolina. 99.1% of the remittances arrived in Mexico through electronic transfers.
The outlook for remittances in 2025 is influenced by the deportation and border closure policies implemented by former U.S. President Donald Trump, as a contraction of 4.9% was recorded in December 2024, the sharpest since May 2013. Despite reaching a new record for remittances sent to Mexico in 2024, totaling 64,745 million dollars, representing a 2.3% growth compared to the previous year, growth is expected to remain low in 2025, with a projected increase of 3%.
The analysis conducted by BBVA Mexico indicates that the slight increase in 2024 reflects a slowdown in recent years, creating uncertainty about the performance of remittances in 2025. Even though remittances grew at record rates during the early years of the pandemic, this growth moderated in 2022 and 2023. As for forecasts for 2025, the Migration and Remittances Observatory estimates a 3% growth, with a possible decline due to lower absorption of Mexican labor in the U.S.
Although Trump's immigration policy may have a minimal impact on the volume of Mexican migrants and remittances, a decrease in resource sending by compatriots was already felt in 2024, especially in the northern states of Mexico. If this situation worsens, it would have a considerable impact on families. Michoacán led in 2024 as the entity that received the most remittances, followed by Guanajuato and Jalisco.
