Globally, the United States' threat to impose tariffs on various countries has harmed the global financial system and created uncertainty among economic agents. In the case of Mexico, this situation is interpreted as a warning to investors to be cautious during this year.
The country is preparing to face possible difficulties regarding its revenues, as it is expected that they will not reach the figures projected by the Ministry of Finance, which anticipated a growth higher than expected by the market. Regarding monetary policy, the Bank of Mexico will continue to reduce the interest rate, although it will remain vigilant for possible events that may affect the value of the national currency.
The monetary policy of the Federal Reserve of the United States will be closely monitored, which has indicated that this year it will be very conservative in its decisions. This translates into the financial sector likely facing another year of low returns, although it may breathe easier with a more flexible monetary policy.
The economic situation in the country looks complicated, with probable annual growth of less than 1%, an increase in the unemployment rate, and a decrease in the attraction of Chinese investments. Economic indicators point towards a slowdown with strong fiscal pressures.
The author, General Director of GAMMA Financial Solutions and CEO of Miri Capital LLC, warns of the uncertainty scenario ahead, emphasizing the importance of being prudent in spending and investment decisions in the future.
The outlook becomes even more complicated with geopolitical uncertainty and the unpromising prospects for investment, essential for long-term economic growth. Additionally, the federal government faces the challenge of reducing a deficit that doubled in 2024, with the difficulty of adjusting public spending without affecting important areas linked to social welfare.
The beginning of the year 2025 presents challenges in all aspects. Trade relations between Mexico and the United States are in question, and a renegotiation of the trade agreement is expected in 2026. The pressure from the United States to repatriate manufacturing companies, combined with the arrival of thousands of deported migrants, also impacts the flow of remittances and investment, especially in infrastructure and the public sector.
In summary, economic signals suggest a challenging and uncertain year for Mexico, which will demand accurate decisions and caution in managing resources and investment strategies.
