The Trump administration has agreed to review gun trafficking, claiming that Marcelo Ebrard cited its positive influence on the cartels in Mexico, which have already been designated as terrorists.
Banxico has identified both upside and downside risks for Mexico's economy in 2025. Among the downside risks are the uncertainty caused by U.S. policies, lower-than-expected growth in the U.S. economy, and episodes of volatility in global financial markets. It was also highlighted that global geopolitical conflicts could impact the global economy. On the other hand, upside risks include greater-than-expected growth in the U.S. economy, a greater positive impact of public spending on economic activity, and higher investment than anticipated under the USMCA.
Banxico has lowered its growth forecast from 1.2% to 0.6% for Mexico in 2025, citing a contraction in Gross Domestic Product in the last quarter of 2024 as the main reason. Consumption and private investment are expected to be sluggish due to current uncertainty, while fiscal consolidation policies will limit the contribution of public spending to productive activity.
Banxico acknowledges that Trump's tariff threats could add more uncertainty to the economic outlook for 2025, as estimates do not account for the potential effects of the announced measures. These tariffs, which include a 25% increase on imported cars, are set to take effect on April 2, unless a new agreement is reached.
On the other hand, the tariffs on steel and aluminum, also at 25%, triggered a response from Canacero, urging retaliatory tariffs against Trump's measures. The Secretary of Economy, Marcelo Ebrard, will travel to Washington to argue that the U.S. has a trade surplus in steel and aluminum with Mexico, considering the tariffs unjustified.
Mexico's economy faces a complicated outlook, with Banxico revising down its growth forecasts and acknowledging the possible effects of U.S. policies and tariffs on the country.
