Historically, when the United States has imposed trade restrictions, Mexico has responded with measures that affect key and politically sensitive sectors. An example of this is that nearly half of U.S. agricultural imports come from Mexico, which could lead to increased costs for consumers due to the lack of lower-priced substitutes in most cases.
Also, about a third of the content of Mexican exports is of U.S. origin. 43 percent of auto parts imports in the United States come from Mexico, and many of these parts contain inputs from the United States. Therefore, the implications of imposing tariffs could be significant for both the U.S. and Mexican economies.
If the United States implements tariffs, Mexico would have the capacity to respond with strategic trade reprisals. From a fiscal revenue perspective, 25 percent tariffs would also not be an efficient solution, nor would they contribute to enriching the United States, according to experts.
Mexico is not a direct competitor of the United States in manufacturing but rather a partner that allows the U.S. to be more productive. Manufacturing wages in Mexico represent only 14 percent of wages in the United States, which causes many U.S. companies to rely on production in Mexico to maintain low costs and remain competitive globally.
Mexico has been a key partner for the United States in strategic areas such as immigration control and the fight against drug trafficking. However, a sustained 25 percent tariff could generate lower economic growth in Mexico, which in turn would increase migration flows to the United States.
If tariffs are imposed on imports from Mexico, U.S. competitiveness in the global market would be affected, especially in sectors like the automotive industry. Moreover, the effects of such a measure could lead to an increase in inflation in the United States and pressure on interest rates, negatively impacting economic growth and access to credit for consumers and businesses.
