In the current context, a significant increase in the Mexican stock market has been observed throughout this year, following a weak 2024 marked by prevailing pessimism. Despite expectations of rising U.S. stocks, surprisingly, Europe is set to stand out in 2025 with solid gains.
Given the 10% tariffs imposed by Trump and China's response, which turned out to be less than expected, it is anticipated that good results will extend across Mexico and the rest of the world due to the high stock market correlation and the relevance of the United States. The optimism is largely based on the excessive pessimism present in Europe. Despite Mexico's dependence on exports to the U.S., at a global level, it represents a low percentage of GDP, and tariffs could easily be circumvented through third countries.
The tariffs are mentioned as a negotiation tool by Trump, and the markets seem to discount the more repeated forecasts, opening the possibility of surprises that would support a scenario of high returns. With 60% of the early years of the presidential term in the U.S. being positive, significant revaluation is expected, creating room for surprise and greater return expectations.
Trade wars garnered attention at the Davos Forum, where Trump threatened to impose taxes on countries that did not invest in the U.S. While the consequences of these measures may not be as dire as expected, the tariff rhetoric generates uncertainty. In Mexico, the threat of a 25% tariff raised alarms in early February.
Despite the tension surrounding tariff decisions, a more positive scenario led by Europe is emerging. As political uncertainty dissipates, European stock markets outperform U.S. markets in a show of confidence in the region. The prevailing pessimism in Europe creates the possibility of positive surprises in economic performance, especially if the eurozone's GDP shows advances.
The prevailing negativity in the market could result in positive surprises, as the strength of business indicators suggests an increase in profits. The historical rarity of chaining three years of excellent results could surprise investors. Disregarded trends often bring positive surprises, raising questions about the impact of potential additional tariffs and suggesting an uncertain scenario for 2025.
