The median estimate for the policy rate at the end of 2025 remains at 8.25 percent, with forecasts ranging between 7.50 and 8.75 percent. Regarding economic growth, a decline in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 0.8 percent is expected in 2025, lower than the previously forecasted 0.9 percent.
Rodolfo Ostolaza, deputy director of economic studies at Banamex, mentioned that the baseline scenario contemplates that the tariffs imposed by the United States on Mexico last only one month and that retaliations do not exceed 12.5 percent, in order to avoid additional consequences. If extended for 3 or 4 months, GDP would fall by 0.6 percent and the exchange rate would reach 21.7, slightly impacting inflation.
Analysts surveyed by Citi Mexico predict that the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) will reduce the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points in the upcoming monetary policy meeting on March 27. Of the 38 participants consulted, 36 anticipate a half-point cut, while only 2 estimate that it could reach 25 basis points. If confirmed, the benchmark interest rate would be at 9 percent, down from the current 9.50 percent.
