Economic uncertainty has increased in Mexico, despite the suspension of tariffs for the moment. Sergio Kurzcyn, director of economic studies at Banamex, projects a 0 percent growth for Mexico in 2025. Trump's loss of credibility in the markets, due to the postponement of tariffs and previous threats, affects perceptions about the T-MEC.
According to Kurzcyn, uncertainty is also increased by internal factors, such as the judicial reform in Mexico that alters the rules of the game hastily. This double uncertainty, along with questionable fiscal policy in 2024, leads Banamex to project economic stagnation for the country in 2025.
Iván Arias, director of Economic Studies at Banamex, suggests that if tariffs were applied to Mexican exports by the United States for a year, GDP could fall by 2.4 percent. This would be due not only to the decrease in exports but mainly to a significant drop in investment.
In a recessionary scenario, it is estimated that the unemployment rate would increase to 4 percent, the exchange rate would close at 23.4 pesos per dollar, and the interest rate would be at 8.25 percent, reducing room for cuts. The government would find itself in trouble due to the lack of spending boost in 2024, which, if it increases the deficit in 2025, would generate concern in the markets.
To address this situation, Kurzcyn suggests a fiscal reform that reassures the markets and ensures long-term fiscal sustainability as a possible way out of the economic crossroads that Mexico would face.
