During the 25 years prior to López's administration, investment in Mexico grew at a rate of 7% per year. However, from 1993 to 2018 - despite facing various crises and recessions - both total investment and construction experienced significant growth, doubling their growth rates.
Throughout the past year, investment and construction began to show concerning deceleration. In the first quarter of 2024, growth was nearly 5%, but by the second quarter it decreased to below 4%, and by September it barely reached 2.5%, closing the year in stagnation at 0%. Compared to the years prior to López's administration, investment has been halved, negatively impacting consumption and the acquisition of machinery, both domestic and imported.
During 2023 and the first half of 2024, consumption experienced annual growth of over 4%, driven by government policies that pressured entrepreneurs to disproportionately raise wages and by cash deliveries financed with debt, creating an income bubble. However, in the last six years, annual growth has remained at a low 0.8%.
The fall in investment has hampered the recovery of existing capital from before the pandemic, impacting overall economic growth. In the last quarter of the year, both consumption and investment contracted. These negative figures add to the declining base that originated with the cancellation of significant projects such as the construction of the airport, which has led to evident deterioration in various economic sectors.
Despite optimistic claims from some officials, the economic reality shows signs of recession, evidenced by year-end closing data. Inflation in construction reflects a 9% decrease in the last quarter, while overall investment fell by 3%.
Recent economic movements, including issues of tariffs and decisions from the U.S. government, are sending signals of recession and generating uncertainty in global markets. The depreciation of the dollar, the fall in stock markets, and in international crude prices are some of the collateral effects of the implemented policies.
