The narrative of nearshoring emerged just after the first trade war of Trump during his first term. Banamex manages the idea that Trump will not impose tariffs on Mexico, but warns about the possible impacts due to uncertainty.
It is estimated that a similar situation will repeat when renegotiating the USMCA in 2024 and resolving tensions between trade partners, excluding China, with which it is expected that Trump will maintain existing tariffs. However, this situation is also expected to come to an end at some point in 2026.
In this context, Luis Gonzali, Vice President and Director of Investments at Franklin Templeton, stated that nearshoring is currently "in a coma," but it could resurge once the USMCA is renegotiated. He highlighted that, despite the ongoing trade war, Mexico will remain attractive to the market due to its proximity to the United States.
Gonzali explained: "We saw it in the first version of the trade war. It’s how Trump likes to negotiate, but we are in a long negotiation process." From Franklin Templeton's perspective, it is believed that once tariff tensions cease, nearshoring could reactivate.
In summary, despite the current pause, there is an expectation that nearshoring will regain strength once trade disputes are resolved and clearer rules are established to attract investments to Mexico.
