In the latest report on economic activity in Mexico, a 5.39% increase in the cultural and sports recreation sector is highlighted during the analyzed month. On the other hand, primary activities rose by 1.0% month-on-month, accumulating three consecutive months in positive territory. Experts like Andrés Abadía from Pantheon Macroeconomics believe these data suggest that the Mexican economy may have avoided a technical recession in the first quarter of the year.
The rebound of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 1.0% month-on-month in February has been seen as a positive outcome, especially driven by the industrial sector. According to analysts, the Global Economic Activity Indicator (IGAE) and the expected figures for March indicate slight growth in the first quarter GDP, which would help avoid a technical recession. However, it is pointed out that productive activity will remain weak in the coming months.
Regarding specific sectors, industrial activity experienced a rebound of 2.49%, with manufacturing advancing by 2.94%. Analysts warn about possible inaccuracies in the calculation of seasonality adjustments and the need to be cautious in interpreting the data, especially in months like February.
Public and private investment are expected to be affected by political and fiscal uncertainty and weak business confidence in the coming months, which could maintain some fragility in economic activity. Despite the favorable data in February, some experts anticipate a partial recovery in March, but with risks tilted to the downside.
Although a recession has not been confirmed, a slowdown in the Mexican economy is observed, influenced by internal and external factors that create uncertainty. Experts agree on the importance of monitoring various indicators before drawing definitive conclusions about the economic situation of the country. Projections point to a GDP growth of 0.5% for this year.
Regarding the different sectors, construction experienced an increase of 2.82%, mining grew by 0.82%, while the services sector recorded an increase of 0.61%, reaching its best figure since May 2024.
