According to analysts, in 2026 the probability that inflation will close in Mexico within a range of 1.5 to 1.9 percent decreased, with this interval still having the highest assigned probability. Adjustments were also made for overall inflation.
The interest rate of the Bank of Mexico for 2026 is projected at 7 percent, representing a decrease of 50 basis points compared to the previous survey. Regarding the exchange rate, it is expected to close this year at 20.81 pesos per dollar, having experienced an increase of 84 cents during the month of April.
For the close of 2025, general inflation is expected to reach 3.8 percent, while for 2026, a forecast of 3.74 percent is predicted. Experts have increased the probability that inflation will close within the intervals of 3.6 to 4.0 percent and 4.1 to 4.5 percent by the end of 2025.
As for core inflation, a prediction of 3.90 percent for the close of 2025 and 3.64 percent for 2026 is expected. Despite these upward adjustments, analysts believe that the Bank of Mexico will cut the interest rate to 7.75 percent, instead of the previously projected 8 percent.
The economic outlook for Mexico is not encouraging, as it is expected that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will grow only 0.2 percent in 2025. This adds to the expectation of an increase in inflation in the coming months. Analysts have reduced their growth forecast for the Mexican economy for the fifth consecutive time, from 0.5 to 0.2 percent in the May survey.
The forecasts for 2026 are also not optimistic, with a GDP growth forecast of 1.5 percent, down from the previous 1.6 percent. In the most recent survey, specialists assigned the highest probability to the range of 0 to 0.4 percent for 2025.
