Economy Country May 05, 2025

Significant Growth in Mexico's Tax Revenue

The real wage mass of formal employment in Mexico increased by 4.5%, leading to a significant rise in tax collection, particularly a 20.9% growth in VAT. Import duties have also surged, prompting discussions about sustainable long-term fiscal trends.


The real wage mass of formal employment increased by about 4.5 percent, significantly expanding the taxable base of this tax. On the other hand, revenue from VAT grew a remarkable 20.9 percent, representing the highest increase recorded for a first quarter. This tax contributed a record amount, exceeding the originally projected by 40 billion pesos.

A depreciation of the peso against the dollar increased the value in pesos of imports, thus boosting revenue associated with foreign trade. Special attention deserves the extraordinary performance of import taxes. Although this item constitutes a smaller proportion of total tax revenues, in the first quarter it contributed more than 42 billion pesos, reflecting an unprecedented increase of 50.5 percent in real terms. This exceptional growth can be mainly attributed to three factors.

Finally, to changes in tariff policies and increased customs oversight, highlighting the reduction of the exemption threshold for the so-called 'minimis' and the implementation of temporary tariffs between 5 percent and 50 percent on more than 500 specific products, besides combating the so-called 'fiscal huachicol'.

"Independent tax experts believe that the greater efficiency of the SAT, supported by digital tax audit technologies and effective collection strategies for large taxpayers, will continue to generate positive results," experts point out. Nevertheless, maintaining this accelerated pace of revenue collection will be complicated if the economy does not regain greater dynamism. A prolonged scenario of low growth could reduce the taxable base and internal consumption, negatively affecting revenue collection.

Despite these achievements, Mexico still shows a relatively low tax burden in international comparison. The first quarter of the year brought us great surprises in economic terms. We already discussed last Friday the significant increase in GDP in the primary sector, which achieved a quarterly growth of 8 percent.

Regarding tax collection, the total of federal government accumulated approximately 1.52 trillion pesos by the end of March, representing a real annual increase of 17.8 percent compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Another determining reason is the growing administrative efficiency and the intensification of audits by the SAT.

Most of the fiscal dynamism came from the exceptional performance in the collection of the two main taxes: ISR and VAT. ISR collection showed a real annual advance of 21.3 percent in the quarter, partly supported by the strength of the labor market and a higher average exchange rate. Meanwhile, VAT collection grew by 20.9 percent, significantly contributing to the increase in total revenue.

It is important to mention that this exceptional growth in tax collection has been the highest recorded in the last decade, which is particularly noteworthy considering the current context of economic stagnation.