According to Fitch Ratings, uncertainty over tariffs and trade agreements with the United States will impact the growth and investment of industrial real estate companies in Mexico. This has raised doubts about long-term relocation, particularly for issuers with exposure to manufacturing. Despite this, the sector has conservative business models, high occupancy rates, and stable financial profiles.
The global trade war that began this year has created significant uncertainty, prompting Fitch Ratings to lower global growth forecasts. Mexico's GDP is expected to decrease by 0.4% in 2025, before recovering by 0.8% the following year. The current uncertainty is leading Mexican real estate companies to reevaluate their investments and consider alternative scenarios in light of declining demand.
According to Fitch, tariffs are likely to mainly impact issuers with the highest exposure to the manufacturing sector. Approximately 80% of the manufacturing clients of these issuers are exporters, with the United States as their primary market. The automotive industry, which represents nearly a quarter of the gross leasable area of the issuers analyzed, is one of the sectors most vulnerable to tariffs.
Regarding the leverage of companies, they are expected to maintain stable capital structures in 2025. In the face of weaker demand, real estate companies are likely to reduce their investments to preserve occupancy rates.
