Credit rating agency HR Ratings has confirmed Mexico's long-term credit rating at HR BBB+ (G), changing the outlook from Stable to Negative. The agency noted that this decision is linked to improvements in key fiscal metrics, particularly fiscal consolidation. According to the agency's analysis, the debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to end the year at 52.2%, which is below its previous estimate of 54.0%. However, HR Ratings warns of short and medium-term risks related to fiscal consolidation. The agency believes that while the trend of lower deficits will continue, it will not be sufficient to contain the increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio due to pressures from financial costs, the federal government's balance, and the exchange rate level. Another risk highlighted is related to the renegotiation of the USMCA (T-MEC).
In this sense, it was noted that a favorable result would help boost investment.
Pemex Rating Confirmed
After confirming the sovereign rating, the agency also maintained the HR AAA rating with a Stable outlook for Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex), considering the support provided by the Mexican government to address its financial debt. In its review, the agency also confirmed the HR BBB+ (G) rating, changing the outlook from Negative to Stable for Pemex on a global scale and for 29 issues.
The rating agency explained that this action is tied to Mexico's sovereign rating but also to the support shown by the Federal Government through contributions for debt service payments, capital investments, and tax supports. It also pointed to the oil company's relevance as a source of income for the country.
In this regard, it highlighted that the challenges for the rating are linked to the government reducing its support for the oil company, as well as any changes to Mexico's sovereign rating.
Pemex returns to the red: loses $61.2 billion and its debt exceeds $100 billion
The announcement came a day after Pemex's financial report, which recorded a loss of 61.2 billion pesos during the third quarter of the year, and its financial debt once again surpassed the one hundred billion dollar mark.
"HR Ratings considers that Pemex's debt has a de facto guarantee from the Federal Government," the agency mentioned.
Additionally, it faces a debt of 517 billion pesos with suppliers. To date, the instruction from President Claudia Sheinbaum is to maintain support from the Treasury for Pemex until 2027, the year in which the oil company is expected to be able to meet its financial commitments.
