International rating agency Moody's reported that in the first half of 2025, Mexico faced its 'second-lowest level in history' in terms of capital inflows, after reaching a record the previous year. According to the report, this decline is explained by the uncertainty caused by possible changes in U.S. tariffs and the planned 2026 review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). The report also highlights that Mexico is moving towards a more defensive posture towards China while seeking to maintain smooth trade with the U.S. and Canada. Although the report does not delve into sectors, it clarifies that risks are especially concentrated in activities with fixed assets, such as agriculture, mining, utilities, and infrastructure, adding an additional layer of vulnerability for the coming years. According to the rating agency, at least half of the debt issuers evaluated in Mexico show moderate or high exposure to phenomena like floods, hurricanes, or water scarcity. This places it alongside China, ASEAN countries, Brazil, and South Africa as destinations that concentrate a large part of the global demand for local currency bonds. However, Moody's warns that the USMCA review is also 'delaying investment and issuance decisions,' reinforcing caution in corporate financing. The report also dedicates a section to the growth of the data center market, placing Mexico as the second-largest in Latin America. The agency highlights that this type of project continues to expand in the region and that Mexico remains one of the main recipients. Finally, Moody's warns that a significant portion of Mexico's corporate sector is exposed to the physical risks of climate change. The agency points out that the country benefits from its proximity to the U.S., special economic zones, and the progress of hyperscale investments in Querétaro. This dual movement is taking place in an international context where geopolitics and tariffs are reshaping investment decisions. Consumption provides a respite for growth while investment continues to fall. Another point highlighted by the agency is that Mexico remains one of the markets where flows into local debt find greater depth.
