Franklin Templeton warns that 2025 is a lost year for growth. Banamex highlighted the growth in manufacturing exports (17.4% annually in October), with a very strong boost from non-automotive manufacturing, while automotive exports fell 14% to both the United States and other markets. Looking ahead, the main point of uncertainty is the USMCA. Total exports grew 6.6%, driven by non-oil exports, which rose 8.2%. This means the process could extend beyond 2026, just when the United States will have midterm elections. The economist warned that Donald Trump could use this review as a political tool and pressure Mexico on issues like migration, border security, and the U.S. trade deficit with Mexico, which is one of the highest. The result was explained by a strong rebound in exports, which grew 14.2% annually, while imports advanced 12.8%. But she warned that risks remain, especially due to the political context in the United States and the review of the USMCA, which will begin in 2026. According to INEGI, the jump originated from a larger surplus in non-oil products, which went from a deficit in September to a surplus of $2.736 billion in October. In the accumulated January-October period, Mexico still maintains a trade deficit of $2.321 billion, although it is much smaller than in the same period last year. Manufacturing advanced 8.6%, and within it, the 15.97% increase in non-automotive manufacturing exports stood out, which has been key this year. Base financial group analyst Gabriela Siller explained that this growth is partly due to the tariffs announced by the United States under the International Economic Emergency Powers Act 'not being enforced to the letter,' which has avoided a greater brake on trade. If there is no consensus, the review can be repeated every year until 2030. The trade balance showed a surplus of $606 million in October, after the September deficit. She also anticipated that Washington could ask for changes to rules of origin, labor content, dispute mechanisms, and investment or security commitments. Siller recalled that the 'sunset' clause obliges the three countries to review the agreement six years after its entry into force.
